I have already laid out the logic behind my recommendation that Obama pick Sen. Webb as his running mate. With logic and sense, David Brooks in the NYTIMES completely undermines my thinking with his suggestion on how the candidate should think of his V.P. selection. Ahem, I'll admit, that per usual, he has some good points.
My first thought on the running mate question is that to balance his ticket, Barack Obama should pick a really old white general. Therefore, he should pick Dwight Eisenhower. John McCain, on the other hand, needs to pick someone younger than himself. Therefore, he also should pick Dwight Eisenhower.
My second thought is that most of the commentary on vice president picks is completely backward. Most discussion focuses on what state or constituency this or that running mate could help carry in the fall. But, as a rule, recent vice presidential nominees haven’t had any effect on key states or constituencies. They haven’t had much effect on elections at all, except occasionally as hapless distractions.
A vice president can, however, have a gigantic impact on an administration once in office (see: Cheney, Richard). Therefore, a sensible presidential candidate shouldn’t be selecting a mate on the basis of who can help him get elected. He should be thinking about who can help him govern successfully so he can get re-elected.
That means asking: What circumstances will I face when I take office? What tasks will I need my chief subordinate to perform to help me face those circumstances?
If Barack Obama is elected, his chief challenge will be that he hopes to usher in a new style of politics, but he has no real strategy for how to do that.
If John McCain is elected, he’ll face a political culture threatening to split at the seams. In defeat, Democrats will be enraged at everything and everybody. The Republican Party will still be exhausted and divided. McCain will find it hard to staff the administration since so many Republican advisers were exhausted over the previous eight years.
Amid these centrifugal forces, McCain will need somebody who radiates calm. He’ll need somebody who can provide structure and organization. He’ll need somebody who enjoys working with budgets.
Check out the whole article, it is short I swear. I'm not changing my opinion, due to the logic of Brooks. I am just willing to suggest that it adds to the level of gravity a V.P. decision carries. Politics, however, should not be read out of the equation. For, if you CAN find a V.P. choice who can help you carry a state you wouldn't have carried on your own or with someone else, you're more likely to get the chance to govern. Obviously this is the essential part of the "making your first governing decision" theory. One that Brooks too easily tosses aside, I might add.
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3 comments:
Here's an important piece of advice: If it looks like it's going to be McCain/Palin anyway (and that should be a "no brainer" for Team McCain), McCain should announce NOW or VERY SOON, rather than later towards the convention. There's currently a growing chorus for Obama/Hillary (as VP) ticket (in fact the Dems are likely aware of the Palin phenomenon). If the GOP waits while movement for Hillary as VP grows -- even worse until after it is solidified that Hillary will/could be VP pick -- selecting Palin will be portrayed by Dems/liberal media more as a reaction by GOP selecting its own female (overshawdoing Palin's own remarkable assets), rather than McCain taking the lead on this. Selecting Palin now or early (contrary to the punditocracy) will mean McCain will be seen as driving the course of this campaign overwhelmingly, and the DEMS will be seen as merely reacting. And, there's absoultely no down-side to this because even if Hillary is a no-go as VP for Obama, the GOP gains by acting early. McCain the maverick. Palin the maverick. Do it now!
There's no reason, and actually substantial negative, in McCain waiting to see what the Dems do first insofar as his picking Palin as VP, because, no matter who Obama picks, Palin is by far (and I mean far) the best pick for McCain and the GOP, especially in this time of GOP woes. The GOP can be seen as the party of real 'change' (albeit I hate that mantra, change, change, bla bla), while not really having to change from GOP core conservative values, which Palin more than represents.
In light of the current oil/energy situation, as well as the disaffected female Hillary voters situation, and growing focus on McCain's age and health, Palin is more than perfect -- now.
(Perhaps Team McCain is already on to this.)
I think Palin is an interesting choice for McCain. You are also correct that he would be wise to get out in front with that choice. My only hesitation, or rather, what I would assume would be the hesitation within the McCain camp, is that she is a first-term governor, short on experience (though countered by McCain being long on experience) and from what I gather about her- she is not going to appeal to the conservative base much more than McCain.
In any case, it could still be a shrewd pick for him to put such a young, vibrant woman on the ticket to combat the image of the McCain campaign as being old in both age and ideas.
Thoughts on Palin: Her bio is quite interesting. She seems to be a unique persona in the political arena. However, while she seems ideal for Alaska, the rest of the country isn't quite as "wild" and woodsy, ie, it isn't really necessary to be able to operate a snow mobile in DC and I'm sure a majority of the country would not see that as such a huge "plus" to her benefit.
Further, although it galls this feminist to admit it, I am still traditional in some of my beliefs on family. I don't think a new mother should attempt to take on the role of Vice President of the country. Odds are, she will do neither job well. This is not to say that mothers cannot also hold political office or important jobs, just that it is also important to try not to bite off more than one can chew, especially when a child's life is involved. I don't know, but I'm guessing that Vice President is a smidge more time consuming and involved than Governor. Who knows? Maybe it's more like other VP positions, where it is, in reality, just a title with a possibility of actual work.
In any event, there is a time and a place where one's private life has to take priority. It's a smidge unfair to offer a, perhaps, once in a lifetime possibility to someone in that position.
At the same time, my contrary nature also thinks it unfair to dismiss a viable female candidate because she is a mother. Hmmmm....
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