A Delayed Return as a Nation Looks Upon South Carolina

Its been awhile since I last wrote . . . but to be honest, while a lot has "happened", not much is different. In my absence from the "blogosphere", we are still in a dead-heat between Clinton and Obama as we head towards South Carolina. We are also still in the midst of a confusing, yet highly entertaining struggle amongst the Republicans that leads us to look backwards at South Carolina.

Some observations for the Democrats first:

• After Hillary won in the tightly contested Nevada Caucuses over the weekend, Obama NEEDS to win South Carolina by 5+ points to have a chance at carrying Super Tuesday on February 5th.
• This is not going to be an easy task though. His poll numbers suggest that heading into tonight's debate he is leading heavily among black men with a smaller lead among black women. With black voters making up over 50% of the SC Democratic voters, maintaining these numbers is imperative for Obama. However, former President Clinton has made it his mission to head to SC and go door-to-door campaigning hard for the black vote that the Clinton's have enjoyed over the years. This is going be a challenge for Obama and he must rise to it, careful not to get drawn into trench warfare with the former President as he has lately fallen into.
• Bill Clinton however, is also drawing fire for his comments about Obama's campaign being a fairy tale.
• Look for Obama to remain strong in SC and pull out a 3 point win there. This will make for an interesting Super Tuesday with the vast Clinton machine and organization well-suited to compete with the broadly appealing candidate of hope in a virtually-national contest.

As for the Republicans:

• Mike Huckabee is dead. Let me please be among the first to declare so. His loss in SC was pure political genius orchestrated by the covert McCain-Thompson coalition. (Thompson took just enough of the evangelical vote to allow McCain to edge out Huckabee.) He is no more. SC was his waterloo no matter how much he shamelessly pandered to a racist "base".
  
• McCain must feel a great sense of redemption after his victory in SC this past weekend. This should increase his fundraising as the GOP race heads toward Florida. This win makes him a much more viable candidate for both Florida and Super Tuesday. He has a very broad, independent appeal that does not traditionally appeal to traditional conservatives, though it should be appealing to the leaders of the party and its strategic base who should be beginning to view McCain as the party's best opportunity for victory in November.
  
• Mitt Romney, who I have given a rather hard time in this space, has impressed me of late. There seems to be an earnestness to his campaign these days that was missing for a long part of the summer and through the fall. This makes him the dangerous candidate that he always looked to be with his huge personal war-chest, good-looks and ability to speak fluent business/fiscal conservative. He needs to make an impressive showing in Florida. While this seems obvious for all of the GOP candidates, it is especially true for the front-runner (in delegates and victories) amongst the Republicans. His 3 victories so far have been in Wyoming (uncontested), Michigan (his homestate where his father was elected governor 3 times) and Nevada (heavily Mormon and largely uncontested). If he wins in Florida, it will send a resounding message to the GOP electorate about his strength and viability. It will make him a tough competitor on Super Tuesday.

That is all I have for now . . . I will likely have more thoughts throughout the week- - hopefully tomorrow after tonight's Democratic debate.

A Post-New Hampshire World

If you believe much of the popular media, Hillary Clinton pulled off a huge upset in NH Tuesday night. But what kind of upset is it when the prohibitive favorite for months wins a primary she was always well-suited to win?

The pundits say that the name of the game is expectations and the polls shot Obama's expectations through the roof. In the end, he could not meet those expectations and come through with victory--but interesting amongst all of the clamor about the polls is the fact that Obama met the percentage expectation of most of the polls. What was not anticipated was Hillary's getting the women vote out in force for her.

Call it what you want; genuine, contrived or whatever- Hillary's show of emotion worked for her. She reaffirmed her political prowess and just perhaps having former President Bill Clinton yelling at them about a coronation of Obama woke up the NH electorate and convinced them that the process needed to go on a little longer.

What we learned from the Democratic race in NH:

1. NEVER, NEVER, NEVER...ever underestimate the Clintons.
2. Obama is for real- a month ago no one would have ever predicted such a tight race in NH.
3. Hillary is a talented politician in a manner completely opposite from her husband. Bill has an ease about him that people like--they are not on guard around him and they get the feeling that he cares. Hillary's equally impressive ability is to put everyone on guard and set no one at ease. But where Bill makes people "feel" that he cares, Hillary lets people "know" that she will work and work and work harder than anyone else out there.

The Republican race is no less interesting than the Democrats and may even be more so. John McCain truly made a miraculous comeback in the Granite State. However, his "maverick" style has always appealed to these truly different New Englanders (how different are they? Justice Souter is from NH--enough said). His natural appeal however, does not entirely explain how he resurrected his campaign in this state.

Many polls have suggested that the number one campaign issue this year is that people want to see change. If that is the case, how does that support the argument for a Senator who has spent more than three decades in Washington? Perhaps the change that Republican voters are looking for is someone in power deigning to respect them enough to tell them the truth? To tell them things are difficult and that sacrifices must be made? Perhaps it is that McCain has always remained steadfastly loyal to traditional Republican politics and steered clear of "W" Republicanism. The other candidates are enmeshed in debates about who supported "W" more, seemingly missing the entire point of this campaign.

What we've learned from the Republican race in NH:

1. There is still a place in the Republican party for a man like McCain.
2. Romney is a 100 times better candidate when he relaxes and is himself. His concession speech was genuine and enjoyable (although his continuing, and not-so-subtle Olympic "medal count" is beyond annoying and quite frankly--lame--stop it Mitt!).
3. Rudy Giuliani's campaign strategy seems moronic now- but with no clear leaders through the primaries so far, perhaps he is a genius.
4. Mike Huckabee continues to be the most empathetic and gifted speech maker on the campaign trail--including Obama. I'm pretty sure I don't like what he is saying, but I enjoy how he says it. Its doubtful that the country is that comfortable to the point where voting for a "voice" seems like a viable option. That is a luxury and now does not seem a time for such luxuries.
5. I think Fred Thompson is having a great time in the spotlight and just happy he has his self-proclaimed "trophy wife" to go home to. I love Fred. (Bumper sticker idea: "FRED-HEAD '08")

NH Prediction Time

Okay, so its late in the work day here in D.C. and I've been reading about the NH primaries all day. My consiglieri has asked me for my picks and I am very excited by the possible results I've been hearing about...and so now it is time for my projections:

Republicans:

1. John McCain- 34%
2. Mitt Romney-30%
3. Ron Paul- 18%
4. Mike Huckabee- 12%
5. Rudy Giuliani- 6%

Democrats:

1. Barack Obama- 45%
2. Hillary Clinton- 31%
3. John Edwards- 24%

HAPPY PRIMARY DAY!

My by % predictions are all rough and made to equal out to 100%. Obviously in the Democratic race there are other candidates who will poll at a decent % but I put the numbers in to establish % point differentials.

The Younger Generation

My Dad wrote me an email the other day after the Obama victory in Iowa and said "its about time your generation showed up." While its certainly true that our generation has been sparse in turning out for elections, I believe the movement surrounding Obama and the massive turnout of younger voters in Iowa shows one thing--our generation will show up when there is something to show up for. Our generation will show up when there is a candidate who decides that, regardless of the common wisdom that young people don't vote, we're not going to alienate them and we are going to speak to them and we are going to engage them. Its what Obama has decided to do and it is what Clinton failed to do (and is now attempting to correct). It seems to me that it is another clear example of the old Democratic order with the traditional leadership and interest groups lining up behind Clinton versus a new Democratic order with a younger generation lining up behind Obama.

The race in NH is a dead-heat and is very exciting. But more than simply a race between Clinton and Obama, perhaps the race is more indicative of a greater struggle in the Democratic party between new and old.

Brilliant Article

I read about a dozen newspaper columns every day and while I have no intention of turning this blog into a DrudgeReport (although I should be so lucky to be in such an esteemed class), when I read a column that I really like--I want to share it with everyone.

I know not everybody has access to the opinion pages of the NYTIMES online so here are a few quotes from David Brooks' column about the Iowa Caucuses, which if you do have access and time, I would encourage you to read.

On Obama's victory:

• This is a huge moment. It’s one of those times when a movement that seemed ethereal and idealistic became a reality and took on political substance.
• Iowa won’t settle the race, but the rest of the primary season is going to be colored by the glow of this result. Whatever their political affiliations, Americans are going to feel good about the Obama victory, which is a story of youth, possibility and unity through diversity — the primordial themes of the American experience.
• He’s made Hillary Clinton, with her wonkish, pragmatic approach to politics, seem uninspired. He’s made John Edwards, with his angry cries that “corporate greed is killing your children’s future,” seem old-fashioned. Edwards’s political career is probably over.
  Obama is changing the tone of American liberalism, and maybe American politics, too.

On Huckabee's victory:

• Huckabee understands how middle-class anxiety is really lived. Democrats talk about wages. But real middle-class families have more to fear economically from divorce than from a free trade pact. A person’s lifetime prospects will be threatened more by single parenting than by outsourcing. Huckabee understands that economic well-being is fused with social and moral well-being, and he talks about the inter-relationship in a way no other candidate has.
• A conservatism that recognizes stable families as the foundation of economic growth is not hard to imagine. A conservatism that loves capitalism but distrusts capitalists is not hard to imagine either. Adam Smith felt this way. A conservatism that pays attention to people making less than $50,000 a year is the only conservatism worth defending.

A Non-Slow Newsday

The results of the Iowa caucuses are news everywhere around the world. The victories of Barack Obama and Mike Huckabee are heralded on the front pages of The Times of London, Le Monde, The Guardian and Al Jazeera.

Perhaps at this time next week no one will even be talking about Obama or Huckabee in the wake of the New Hampshire Primaries. But today it is the top story because Obama and Huckabee victories are unlikely plots in the greater story of a sea-change in American politics. Obama and Huckabee are improbable victors in that they both, in their own way, bucked the establishment trend of American politics. This is by no means an original thought on my part but it is an interesting and exciting point.

Huckabee knocked off Mitt Romney, the most well-funded of GOP candidates. Romney is the protypical GOP candidate in that he is backed by large amounts of money, is by all accounts an efficient and effective campaigner, if appropriately tagged with an "opportunist" and "disingenuous" label. The people of Iowa chose to look through the facade of the Romney campaign and look to Huckabee--a candidate that is homespun and genuine (and also very shrewd at tapping into the populist desires of Iowans). The real trick for Huckabee will be making his message portable. . . and answering the question of what really is his message?

Obama was a well-funded candidate in Iowa but is for obvious reasons (age, cultural background, experience), an atypical candidate for President and yet, he knocked off one of the most well-known political machines in the Clintons. His message has been hope and he has brought hope to his supporters around the country with his commanding victory in Iowa. This will likely galvanize supporters and donors nationwide adding to his already stellar war chest in New Hampshire and beyond. I think it is still too early for an Iowa victory by Obama to mean he has swewn up the nomination. It is important to remember that the Clintons never had their strongest organization or parts of their machine in Iowa. Yes, they were the national front runner but it was always close in Iowa. If however, Obama can take the momentum into Iowa (and the amazing turnout of independents and young voters that he got there) into New Hampshire and get another victory--then I think it would be safe to say the nomination is his.

Why is the earth still turning?

TODAY IS THE DAY!!!!

I am sitting at work and very excited about the Iowa Caucuses tonight...I just asked Kermit if it was a bad thing that I became palpably upset when I went to NYTIMES.COM and saw that they were covering more than the primaries. She informed me that, yes, life goes on and does not solely exist within my tiny, political vacuum of a life.

Anyway, I'm going to give updated projections because 'tis the season and I think I'm correct this time.

Democrats:

1. Barack Obama
2. John Edwards
3. Hillary Clinton

Republicans:

1. Mitt Romney
2. Mike Huckabee
3. John McCain

I am going to an Obama rally/"thing" in Arlington tonight, which will be a helluva lot more fun if he wins. So lets hope my projections are better than the consistency of my posting!