A Delayed Return as a Nation Looks Upon South Carolina

Its been awhile since I last wrote . . . but to be honest, while a lot has "happened", not much is different. In my absence from the "blogosphere", we are still in a dead-heat between Clinton and Obama as we head towards South Carolina. We are also still in the midst of a confusing, yet highly entertaining struggle amongst the Republicans that leads us to look backwards at South Carolina.

Some observations for the Democrats first:

• After Hillary won in the tightly contested Nevada Caucuses over the weekend, Obama NEEDS to win South Carolina by 5+ points to have a chance at carrying Super Tuesday on February 5th.
• This is not going to be an easy task though. His poll numbers suggest that heading into tonight's debate he is leading heavily among black men with a smaller lead among black women. With black voters making up over 50% of the SC Democratic voters, maintaining these numbers is imperative for Obama. However, former President Clinton has made it his mission to head to SC and go door-to-door campaigning hard for the black vote that the Clinton's have enjoyed over the years. This is going be a challenge for Obama and he must rise to it, careful not to get drawn into trench warfare with the former President as he has lately fallen into.
• Bill Clinton however, is also drawing fire for his comments about Obama's campaign being a fairy tale.
• Look for Obama to remain strong in SC and pull out a 3 point win there. This will make for an interesting Super Tuesday with the vast Clinton machine and organization well-suited to compete with the broadly appealing candidate of hope in a virtually-national contest.

As for the Republicans:

• Mike Huckabee is dead. Let me please be among the first to declare so. His loss in SC was pure political genius orchestrated by the covert McCain-Thompson coalition. (Thompson took just enough of the evangelical vote to allow McCain to edge out Huckabee.) He is no more. SC was his waterloo no matter how much he shamelessly pandered to a racist "base".
  
• McCain must feel a great sense of redemption after his victory in SC this past weekend. This should increase his fundraising as the GOP race heads toward Florida. This win makes him a much more viable candidate for both Florida and Super Tuesday. He has a very broad, independent appeal that does not traditionally appeal to traditional conservatives, though it should be appealing to the leaders of the party and its strategic base who should be beginning to view McCain as the party's best opportunity for victory in November.
  
• Mitt Romney, who I have given a rather hard time in this space, has impressed me of late. There seems to be an earnestness to his campaign these days that was missing for a long part of the summer and through the fall. This makes him the dangerous candidate that he always looked to be with his huge personal war-chest, good-looks and ability to speak fluent business/fiscal conservative. He needs to make an impressive showing in Florida. While this seems obvious for all of the GOP candidates, it is especially true for the front-runner (in delegates and victories) amongst the Republicans. His 3 victories so far have been in Wyoming (uncontested), Michigan (his homestate where his father was elected governor 3 times) and Nevada (heavily Mormon and largely uncontested). If he wins in Florida, it will send a resounding message to the GOP electorate about his strength and viability. It will make him a tough competitor on Super Tuesday.

That is all I have for now . . . I will likely have more thoughts throughout the week- - hopefully tomorrow after tonight's Democratic debate.