A new Utah Policy poll shows Sen. Orrin Hatch, R-Utah, could be fighting off Republicans and Democrats in 2012. University of Utah political scientist Tim Chambless says Hatch will fight an uphill battle because of age, health and distrust of incumbents." There is a possibility that Senator Hatch, the incumbent, would be challenged from within his own party and would be vulnerable to the same fate as Senator Bob Bennett," Chambless said. When Hatch is put up against possible Republican challengers he falls behind both former governor John Huntsman, Jr. and Rep. Jason Chaffetz, R-Utah:
- 48 percent support Huntsman, who hasn't said what his plans are for the 2012 election
- 23 percent support Chaffetz, who has hinted he might run
- 21 percent support Hatch, who says he's definitely running again
- 7 percent said they favor someone else
- 1 percent said they don't know
But it's not just Republicans. According to the poll, Representative Jim Matheson is close behind Hatch, who doesn't cross that magical 50% threshold for incumbents. Hatch would win that election 48%-41%. The margin of error on these polls was 4.5%. Now, 2012 elections are still a long way away, and a lot can happen in that time. But for now, I'm very intrigued in what could become of Senator Hatch - indeed, with Kent Conrad announcing his retirement recently and Joe Lieberman set to announce his retirement tomorrow, three more long term senators could be leaving the Senate. SLC, if you're reading this, what do you think of the polls? Are they an anomaly? Is the sample size too small? Will Hatch's political acumen allow him to survive anyway?
2 comments:
You forgot to mention Regis announcing his retirement.
Also, no links for Conrad and Lieberman? This isn't a criticism, I just hadn't heard either were retiring, so links would be helpful.
Without any knowledge whatsoever, I'm going out on a limb and suggesting these poll numbers look legit. After the abomination of what happened with Bennett, I expect Hatch to be in some real trouble. But Utah will reap what they sew with their election of lunatic fringe light bulb Mike Lee. It's my understanding, and again, I claim limited understanding, that Chaffetz might actually be a superior option to Hatch. I'd love to hear some feedback on this.
I trust by now that you've read plenty on Lieberman. Here's a link for Conrad: http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/senate/kent-conrad-to-retire.html
I'm not remotely a fan of Chaffetz right now based on his hyprocrisy on the federal employee issue:
http://thecynicalpolitical.blogspot.com/2010/12/hypocrisy-really-doesnt-surprise-me.html
Post a Comment