Polls Pushing Clinton to Panic?

1) The dominating political theme of this week in news has been Hillary Clinton's precipitous fall from the top of the polls in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. In the latter two, as recently as November, Clinton maintained double-digit leads. It seems that the dramatic drop in her poll numbers (or perhaps the dramatic drop in undecideds and dramatic rise of Barack Obama's numbers) has caused the normally "cool as the other side of the pillow" Clinton campaign to panic.

The clearest sign of campaign distress in Clinton city was this week's assertion by campaign Co-Chair Bill Shaheen (the husband of former New Hampshire governor and current senate candidate Jean Shaheen.) Shaheen questioned Obama's fitness as the Democratic nominee because he "feared" that "Republicans" might use his previously admitted drug use against him, proceeding to "explain" what he "feared" they might ask. This was an old, see-through campaign trick--all the way through his resignation and chest beating that HE and HE ALONE came up with the idea to mention it to the press.

Meanwhile, in Obama-ville, the young, rising star has finally stopped playing the role of the rising star and is starting to look like a front runner. He is also, for the first time, starting to look like he might actually want to compete and perhaps win this little election thing he has entered. For some time now, writers such as Andrew Sullivan have been commenting on all of the positives that could come from an Obama presidency. What has been lacking is any sense that Obama himself wants the job and is willing to do what it takes to get it. No one has EVER questioned Hillary's desire to have the job. Finally, Obama has responded with some desire a and confidence as well. His newfound confidence was on display in Thursday's final debate in Iowa when he was asked about the number of former Clinton administration foreign policy advisers that he has working with him. The question caused a chuckle amongst the other candidates, most notably Clinton whose mic seemed to carry her laugh (what Chris Matthews has dubbed her "cackle") above the others. Obama turned confidently and said that he was looking forward to Clinton advising him as well. It was a moment for me that stood out because it seemed to be the first time Obama has seized control of a debate and looked like a front runner. In the past debates, even when Obama or John Edwards landed punches, Clinton clearly stood out with the confidence of a front runner. No longer. The metamorphosis in this campaign has been amazing, enjoyable to watch and sudden, if not unexpected.

2) It is interesting to juxtapose this year's Democratic race for the nomination with that in 2004, especially in Iowa. In 2004 the early leader in the race was Howard Dean, the little known governor from Vermont who maintained an amazing, insurgent campaign. He led the polls in Iowa for several months before the election. It wasn't until he allowed himself to get dragged down into the mud with Missouri Congressman Dick Gephardt that his lead began to slip. Over the final two weeks, with Dean and Gephardt slugging and slinging it out--John Kerry (who had a well-organized ground attack) swept in and took Iowa on his way to the nomination. Perhaps the most remarkable thing about watching Dean in that election was the personality aspect. He knew he was an insurgency in the party, he was energizing the party--but he never expected he could win. When it started getting close and he maintained a lead and it became clear that he COULD in fact win, he panicked. He allowed himself to get into fights and scraps that a front runner has no business allowing themselves to get into. His demise was culminated in his infamous scream.

Compare that to Barack Obama, whose convention address in 2004 alighted his 2008 candidacy. Because of his name recognition and "status", he was immediately considered a contender and a top-tier candidate. When he entered the race, there was very little, if any, doubt that he could possibly win. However, he has spent much of the past year well-behind Clinton in the polls. He never developed a sense of urgency, driving on-lookers like me crazy. Instead, he kept going on easy and steady does it. As actual voting gets closer, its beginning to sink in, much like it did with Dean, that he could very well win this thing. The difference between the candidate's reactions is telling about the men. Dean panicked and began to behave the scrappy insurgent he always was. Obama is just gaining more and more poise and confidence and beginning to behave like the fron trunner he always was.

Don't look for Obama to allow himself to take his eye off the ball and get dragged into a street fight with Clinton (the highest hopes of the Edwards campaign.) He seems more than happy to stand at the podium and be gracious to Hillary, to extend his imprimatur to Joe Biden and to confidently fight off the inside pitches and take advantage of the fastballs right down the middle. He is in fact, more than happy to be at home in the front runner position he always knew he would be in since kindergarten.